Political Problems
No AIDS prevention program can succeed without political support. However, this support has often been lacking. Governments in too many countries for too many years have belittled or even denied the problem and thus have lost precious time in taking the necessary steps. Some governments also ignored the lessons learned by others and took measures that were actually counterproductive. Two examples: Criminalizing homosexual behavior and arresting women for prostitution if they were found to be in the possession of condoms.

In the meantime, there has been some progress, but, when viewed globally, it is still too slow. According to a recent American intelligence report, the next big wave of the AIDS pandemic will hit important countries which together comprise more than 40% of the world population. These countries could face very high infection rates unless they act fast: Not only will their health costs explode, but they may lose large parts of their educated elites and with them their economic growth and international influence. India and China with their large populations may be able to cope longer than the other countries, but eventually they will face the same grim future if they do not intensify their prevention efforts. Even assuming that the American intelligence estimates are too high, one is, at best, talking about a time lag. Therefore, governments that are still hesitant today must understand that, sooner or later, they may have to face not only millions of sick and dying citizens, but, in consequence, national disasters that could disrupt their economic, political, and military structures. Indeed, AIDS could tear apart the very fabric of their societies.